Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Recap for June 1st

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP

The U.S. Dollar consolidated last week, losing slightly against most of the majors, with the exception of a fractional gain shown against the Japanese Yen. The week began with the formation of Italy’s populist government and concluded with a trade war after U.S. President Trump let the temporary exemptions on steel and aluminum tariffs for Mexico, Canada and the EU expire.

Notable selected quotes from financial and political officials and other key events made and/or reported on over the past week are listed below by the day on which the news reports about them were released:

  • On Monday, May 28th, Italian Prime Minister designate Carlo Cottarelli said that, “I’ll present myself to parliament with a program which — if it wins the backing of parliament — would include the approval of the 2019 budget. Then parliament would be dissolved with elections at the beginning of 2019”. Cotarelli added that, “In the absence of (parliament’s) confidence, the government would resign immediately and its main function would be the management of ordinary affairs until elections are held after the month of August”.
  • On Tuesday, May 29th, German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed her concerns on the fraying of the multilateral order. Merkel said in Berlin that, “International agreements and institutions are being weakened. This is worrying, since our multilateral global order comes from the lessons we learned from the terrible world wars of the last century,” Merkel added that, “the people who experienced World War Two, the last true global catastrophe, are dying out and are no longer there as eyewitnesses.”
  • On Wednesday, May 30th, Canadian PM Justin Trudeau in an interview with Bloomberg stated that, “No NAFTA is better than a bad deal, and we’ve made that very clear to the president.” Trudeau added that, “We are not going to move ahead just for the sake of moving ahead. The uncertainty related to what’s going to happen to NAFTA is there, and is a factor, but quite frankly you can’t get around geography.”
  • On Thursday, May 31st, in a speech to the Forecaster’s Club in New York, FOMC member Lael Brainard said that, “Continued gradual increases in the federal funds rate are likely to be consistent with sustaining strong labor market conditions and inflation around target. This outlook suggests a policy path that moves gradually from modestly accommodative today to neutral — and, after some time, modestly beyond neutral.”
  • On Friday, May 25th, a spokesperson for the EU Executive told a news briefing in Brussels that, “We have full confidence in the capacity and willingness of the new government to engage constructively with its European partners and EU institutions to uphold Italy’s central role in the common European project”. The spokesperson added that, “President Juncker is committed to work with the new Italian government to take on the many common challenges that Italy and Europe are facing, from trade to migration and many more.”

 

ECONOMIC RELEASE RECAP

The following table contains results for significant economic data releases and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

SunMay 27 11:50pm JPY SPPI y/y 0.9% 0.5% 0.5%
MonMay 28 All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
11:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
TueMay 29 6:00am CHF Trade Balance 2.29B 2.23B 1.69B
8:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 3.9% 3.9% 3.7%
EUR Private Loans y/y 2.9% 3.2% 2.9%
1:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 6.8% 6.5% 6.8%
2:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 128.0 128.2 125.6
9:00pm NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
10:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m -3.7% 13.0%
11:01pm GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -1.1% -1.0%
11:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y 1.6% 0.9% 1.0%
WedMay 30 12:00am JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
1:10am NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
1:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m -5.0% -2.9% 3.5%
5:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 43.8 43.9 43.6
6:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 2.3% 0.5% -0.4%
EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.5% 0.3% 0.0%
6:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m -1.5% 0.2% 0.2%
EUR French Prelim GDP q/q 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
7:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 100.0 104.6 103.3
EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 2.0% 1.7% 1.1%
7:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -11K -10K -8K
8:00am CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations 28.0 7.2
9:22am EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 3.00|1.5 1.70|1.4
12:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 178K 191K 163K
12:30pm CAD Current Account -19.5B -18.1B -16.5B
CAD RMPI m/m 0.7% 2.1% 2.1%
CAD IPPI m/m 0.5% 0.6% 0.9%
USD Prelim GDP q/q 2.2% 2.3% 2.3%
USD Goods Trade Balance -68.2B -71.2B -68.3B
USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 1.9% 2.0% 2.0%
USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.0% 0.4% 0.3%
2:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 1.25% 1.25% 1.25%
2:45pm CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
6:00pm USD Beige Book
11:01pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -7 -8 -9
11:50pm JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 0.3% 1.5% 1.4%
ThuMay 31 12:59am CNY Manufacturing PMI 51.9 51.4 51.4
1:00am CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.9 54.8 54.8
NZD ANZ Business Confidence -27.2 -23.4
1:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.4% 0.4% 0.5%
5:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y 0.3% -8.8% -8.3%
5:45am CHF GDP q/q 0.6% 0.5% 0.6%
6:00am GBP Nationwide HPI m/m -0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
6:45am EUR French Prelim CPI m/m 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
7:00am CHF Gov Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks
7:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y 2.2% -1.4% -1.1%
8:00am EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 11.2% 10.9% 11.1%
8:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.7B 5.2B 4.4B
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m 0.2% -1.1% -1.4%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 62K 63K 63K
9:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.9% 1.6% 1.2%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.1% 1.0% 0.7%
EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
EUR Unemployment Rate 8.5% 8.4% 8.6%
Day 1 All G7 Meetings
11:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -4.8% -1.4%
12:30pm CAD GDP m/m 0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.6% 0.4% 0.5%
USD Unemployment Claims 221K 228K 234K
USD Personal Income m/m 0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
1:45pm USD Chicago PMI 62.7 58.2 57.6
2:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m -1.3% 0.4% 0.6%
2:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 96B 100B 91B
3:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.6M -0.4M 5.8M
4:20pm CAD Gov Council Member Leduc Speaks
4:45pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
5:00pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
10:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 57.5 58.3
10:45pm NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q -1.9% -2.0% 1.5%
11:50pm JPY Capital Spending q/y 3.4% 3.2% 4.3%
FriJun 1 12:30am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 52.8 52.5 52.5
1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.1 51.3 51.1
6:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y 3.6% -1.8%
7:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 53.4 53.9 54.4
7:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 62.4 62.3 63.6
7:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 52.7 53.0 53.5
7:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 54.4 55.1 55.1
7:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 56.9 56.8 56.8
8:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 55.5 55.5 55.5
8:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 54.4 53.5 53.9
Day 2 All G7 Meetings
12:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 223K 189K 159K
USD Unemployment Rate 3.8% 3.9% 3.9%
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 56.2 55.5
1:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 56.4 56.6 56.6
2:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 58.7 58.3 57.3
USD Construction Spending m/m 1.8% 0.8% -1.7%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 79.5 78.1 79.3
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 16.9M 17.0M 17.2M
SatJun 2 Day 3 All G7 Meetings

 

TECHNICAL RECAP

The table below contains our previous directional forecast and what spot level it was made at, as well as the previous close, open, high, low, close and percent change on the week that were subsequently observed for the past week for each of the major currency pairs.

 

 

 

Previous

Forecast

Open

Prev. Close

High

Day

Low

Day

Close

% Change

EUR/USD Mildly Higher 1.1685 1.1728 1.1510 1.1658
Spot: 1.1685 1.1648 Monday Tuesday +0.1%
USD/JPY Lower 109.71 109.83 108.11 109.51
Spot: 109.70 109.38 Monday Tuesday +0.1%
   
GBP/USD Higher 1.3311 1.3047 1.3205 1.3348
Spot: 1.3312 1.3296 Tuesday Tuesday +0.4%
 
AUD/USD Higher 0.7567 0.7593 0.7476 0.7567
Spot: 0.7545 0.7547 Thursday Wednesday +0.3%
 
USD/CAD Mildly Higher 1.2959 1.2988 1.2819 1.2953
Spot: 1.2959 1.2973 Friday Thursday -0.2%
 
NZD/USD Higher 0.6986 0.7023 0.6883 0.6986
Spot: 0.6921 0.6917 Thursday Wednesday +1.1%

 

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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