Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Recap for May 25th

EDITORS-IN-CHIEF:

Jay and Julie Hawk

FIND OUT MORE:

www.thefxperts.com

WEEKLY MARKET RECAP

The U.S. Dollar gave a mixed performance last week, gaining against the Euro, Loonie and Sterling, unchanged against the Kiwi, but lower against the Australian Dollar, the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc. Weak economic numbers and the results of Italy’s election weighed on the Euro, while lower than expected inflation numbers pressured Sterling. The U.S. Dollar’s mixed performance was in part due to a slightly dovish FOMC Meeting Minutes and President Trump’s cancelling of the June 12th summit with North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un.

Notable selected quotes from financial and political officials and other key events made and/or reported on over the past week are listed below by the day on which the news reports about them were released:

  • On Monday, May 21st, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, in his semi-annual testimony to the Japanese parliament said that, “We will communicate specifics on how we plan to exit once inflation accelerates toward 2 percent and conditions for hitting our target gradually fall into place,” Kuroda continued saying that, “For now, we don’t think conditions are rife to consider specific timings for an exit,” he said. “The BOJ won’t end its ultra-easy policy before inflation reaches 2 percent.”
  • On Tuesday, May 22nd, BOE Governor Mark Carney addressed the Treasury Committee of the British Parliament, on Brexit Carney said that, “The forecast on the eve of the referendum, which was predicated on a vote to remain (…) and was predicated on a relatively weak European and global economy.” Carney continued, “If you look at where the economy is today, relative to that forecast, it’s more than 1 percent below where it was despite very large stimulus provided by the Bank of England, a fiscal easing by the government and global and European economies, which are much, much stronger than they were previously. If you adjust for those factors, the economy is about one and three-quarters – one and half, one and three-quarters, up to two percent lower than it would have been.”
  • Wednesday, May 23rd saw U.S. President Donald Trump say he’s “not satisfied” with trade talks with China. Also, Trump was unclear about the planned Kim-Trump summit scheduled for June 12th, saying that, “whether or not it happens, you’ll be knowing pretty soon”.
  • On Thursday, May 24th, the ECB’s Meeting Minutes for its April meeting noted that, “There were signs of softening demand, which warranted monitoring. A more pronounced weakening of demand, notably related to external factors, could therefore not be ruled out. The moderation in growth appeared to be broad-based across countries and sectors”.
  • On Friday, May 25th, Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that the Saudi Aramco IPO will “most likely” happen next year, adding that, “The timing I think will depend on the readiness of the market, rather than the readiness of the company or the readiness of Saudi Arabia”.

ECONOMIC RELEASE RECAP

The following table contains results for significant economic data releases and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

 

SunMay 20 10:45pm NZD Retail Sales q/q 0.10% 1.00% 1.40%
NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -1.30% -1.50%
10:47pm NZD Core Retail Sales q/q 0.60% 1.10% 1.80%
11:01pm GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 0.80% 0.40%
11:50pm JPY Trade Balance 0.55T 0.11T 0.17T
MonMay 21 3:00am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 7.00% 7.40%
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
2:30pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.20% 0.20%
3:30pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
TueMay 22 5:00am JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y 0.50% 0.60% 0.70%
8:15am GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
8:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 6.2B 7.2B -0.8B
9:00am GBP Inflation Report Hearings
10:00am EUR German Buba Monthly Report
GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations -3 2 4
12:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 1.10% 0.80% -0.40%
1:00pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m 1.50% 1.60%
1:59pm USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 16 9 -3
WedMay 23 12:30am AUD MI Leading Index m/m 0.20% -0.10%
JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.5 53.6 53.8
1:30am AUD Construction Work Done q/q 0.20% 1.10% -18.30%
4:30am JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.00% 0.10% 0.40%
7:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.1 53.6 53.8
EUR French Flash Services PMI 54.3 57.1 57.4
7:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.8 57.9 58.1
EUR German Flash Services PMI 52.1 53.1 53
8:00am AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 55.5 56.1 56.2
EUR Flash Services PMI 53.9 54.7 54.7
8:30am GBP CPI y/y 2.40% 2.50% 2.50%
GBP PPI Input m/m 0.40% 1.00% 0.10%
GBP RPI y/y 3.40% 3.40% 3.30%
GBP Core CPI y/y 2.10% 2.20% 2.30%
GBP HPI y/y 4.20% 4.40% 4.20%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
10:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 11 4 -2
1:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.6 56.6 56.5
USD Flash Services PMI 55.7 54.9 54.6
1:55pm EUR Consumer Confidence 0 0 0
2:00pm USD New Home Sales 662K 680K 672K
2:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.8M -2.5M -1.4M
6:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
10:45pm NZD Trade Balance 263M 200M -156M
ThuMay 24 6:00am EUR German Final GDP q/q 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 10.7 10.8 10.8
8:00am EUR ECB Financial Stability Review
GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
8:15am USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
8:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 1.60% 0.80% -1.10%
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
11:30am EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12:30pm CAD Corporate Profits q/q 2.70% -1.90%
USD Unemployment Claims 234K 220K 223K
12:59pm EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate 0.2 0.6 1
1:00pm USD HPI m/m 0.10% 0.50% 0.60%
2:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.46M 5.56M 5.60M
2:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 91B 92B 106B
2:35pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
7:10pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y 0.50% 0.60% 0.60%
FriMay 25 8:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 102.2 102 102.2
8:30am GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q -0.20% 0.20% 0.30%
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.30% 0.30% 0.50%
8:36am GBP High Street Lending 38.0K 37.5K 37.6K
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
12:00pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
12:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.90% 0.50% 0.10%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m -1.70% -1.30% 2.70%
1:20pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
2:00pm USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 98 98.8 98.8
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.80% 2.80%
3:45pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
7:20pm EUR German Buba President Weidmann Speaks

 

TECHNICAL RECAP

The table below contains our previous directional forecast and what spot level it was made at, as well as the previous close, open, high, low, close and percent change on the week that were subsequently observed for the past week for each of the major currency pairs.

 

 

 

Previous

Forecast

Open

Prev. Close

High

Day

Low

Day

Close

% Change

EUR/USD Lower 1.1771 1.1829 1.1646 1.1648
Spot: 1.1754 1.1770 Tuesday Friday -1.0%
USD/JPY Mildly Higher 110.87 111.39 108.95 109.38
Spot: 111.10 110.74 Monday Thursday -1.2%
   
GBP/USD Lower 1.3465 1.3491 1.3294 1.3296
Spot: 1.3437 1.3470 Tuesday Friday -1.3%
 
AUD/USD Lower 0.7520 0.7505 0.7523 0.7547
Spot: 0.7526 0.7508 Tuesday Wednesday +0.5%
 
USD/CAD Mildly Higher 1.2875 1.2988 1.2742 1.2973
Spot: 1.2866 1.2884 Friday Tuesday +0.7%
 
NZD/USD Lower 0.6918 0.6974 0.6884 0.6917
Spot: 0.6900 0.6963 Tuesday Wednesday -0.0%

 

Disclaimer:

TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s