Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for May 28th


Jay and Julie Hawk



This otherwise rather active week begins with the United States and Great Britain observing bank holidays on Monday. Tuesday’s releases include the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence index and the RBNZ Financial Stability Report. On Wednesday, market events begin with a speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda and a speech by RBNZ Governor Orr. Also on calendar for Wednesday are U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Preliminary GDP; the BOC Overnight Rate and Rate Statement; and a speech by SNB Chairman Jordan.

Thursday’s highlights include New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence, Australian Private Capital Expenditure, Canadian GDP and U.S. Crude Oil Inventories. The week concludes with Friday’s release of UK Manufacturing PMI, U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, the Unemployment Rate and ISM Manufacturing PMI.


The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

SunMay 27 11:50pm JPY SPPI y/y 0.50% 0.50%
MonMay 28 All Day GBP Bank Holiday
All Day USD Bank Holiday
 11:30pm JPY Unemployment Rate 2.50% 2.50%
TueMay 29 6:00am CHF Trade Balance 2.23B 1.77B
8:00am EUR M3 Money Supply y/y 3.90% 3.70%
EUR Private Loans y/y 3.20% 3.00%
1:00pm USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 6.50% 6.80%
2:00pm USD CB Consumer Confidence 128.2 128.7
9:00pm NZD RBNZ Financial Stability Report
10:45pm NZD Building Consents m/m 14.70%
11:01pm GBP BRC Shop Price Index y/y -1.00%
11:50pm JPY Retail Sales y/y 0.90% 1.00%
WedMay 30 12:00am JPY BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
1:10am NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
1:30am AUD Building Approvals m/m -2.90% 2.60%
5:00am JPY Consumer Confidence 43.9 43.6
6:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.50% -0.60%
EUR German Import Prices m/m 0.70% 0.00%
30th-3rd GBP Nationwide HPI m/m 0.30% 0.20%
All Day EUR German Prelim CPI m/m 0.30% 0.00%
6:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m 0.20% 0.10%
EUR French Prelim GDP q/q 0.30% 0.30%
7:00am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 104.8 105.3
EUR Spanish Flash CPI y/y 1.70% 1.10%
7:55am EUR German Unemployment Change -10K -7K
8:00am CHF Credit Suisse Economic Expectations 7.2
Tentative EUR Italian 10-y Bond Auction 1.70|1.4
12:15pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 186K 204K
12:30pm CAD Current Account -18.2B -16.3B
CAD RMPI m/m 2.10%
CAD IPPI m/m 0.80%
USD Prelim GDP q/q 2.30% 2.30%
USD Goods Trade Balance -71.2B -68.3B
USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q 2.00% 2.00%
USD Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m 0.40% 0.30%
2:00pm CAD BOC Rate Statement
CAD Overnight Rate 1.25% 1.25%
2:45pm CHF SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
6:00pm USD Beige Book
11:01pm GBP GfK Consumer Confidence -8 -9
11:50pm JPY Prelim Industrial Production m/m 1.50% 1.40%
ThuMay 31 1:00am CNY Manufacturing PMI 51.4 51.4
CNY Non-Manufacturing PMI 54.8 54.8
NZD ANZ Business Confidence -23.4
1:30am AUD Private Capital Expenditure q/q 1.10% -0.20%
AUD Private Sector Credit m/m 0.40% 0.50%
5:00am JPY Housing Starts y/y -8.80% -8.30%
5:45am CHF GDP q/q 0.50% 0.60%
6:45am EUR French Prelim CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20%
7:00am CHF Gov Board Member Zurbrugg Speaks
7:15am CHF Retail Sales y/y -1.40% -1.80%
8:00am EUR Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate 10.90% 11.00%
8:30am GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 5.2B 4.2B
GBP M4 Money Supply m/m -1.10% -1.40%
GBP Mortgage Approvals 63K 63K
9:00am EUR CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.60% 1.20%
EUR Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y 1.00% 0.70%
EUR Italian Prelim CPI m/m 0.20% 0.10%
EUR Unemployment Rate 8.40% 8.50%
Day 1 All G7 Meetings
11:30am USD Challenger Job Cuts y/y -1.40%
12:30pm CAD GDP m/m 0.20% 0.40%
USD Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.10% 0.20%
USD Personal Spending m/m 0.40% 0.40%
USD Unemployment Claims 230K 234K
USD Personal Income m/m 0.30% 0.30%
1:45pm USD Chicago PMI 58.2 57.6
2:00pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m 1.10% 0.40%
2:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 91B
3:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories 5.8M
4:20pm CAD Gov Council Member Leduc Speaks
4:45pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
5:00pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
10:30pm AUD AIG Manufacturing Index 58.3
10:45pm NZD Overseas Trade Index q/q -2.00% 0.80%
11:50pm JPY Capital Spending q/y 3.30% 4.30%
FriJun 1 12:30am JPY Final Manufacturing PMI 52.5 52.5
Tentative AUD HIA New Home Sales m/m -2.00%
1:45am CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI 51.3 51.1
6:30am AUD Commodity Prices y/y -1.40%
7:15am EUR Spanish Manufacturing PMI 54.2 54.4
7:30am CHF Manufacturing PMI 62.6 63.6
7:45am EUR Italian Manufacturing PMI 53 53.5
7:50am EUR French Final Manufacturing PMI 55.1 55.1
7:55am EUR German Final Manufacturing PMI 56.8 56.8
8:00am EUR Final Manufacturing PMI 55.5 55.5
8:30am GBP Manufacturing PMI 53.5 53.9
Day 2 All G7 Meetings
12:30pm USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m 0.30% 0.10%
USD Non-Farm Employment Change 190K 164K
USD Unemployment Rate 3.90% 3.90%
1:30pm CAD Manufacturing PMI 55.5
1:45pm USD Final Manufacturing PMI 56.6 56.6
2:00pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI 58.2 57.3
USD Construction Spending m/m 0.90% -1.70%
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices 77.6 79.3
All Day USD Total Vehicle Sales 17.0M 17.2M
SatJun 2 Day 3 All G7 Meetings




The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.



EUR/USD Mildly Higher Resistance: 1.1717 1.1817/23 1.1862
Spot: 1.1685 Support: 1.1669/76 1.1553/73 1.1445
USD/JPY Lower Resistance: 110.02/48 110. 84 111.59/65
Spot: 109.70 Support: 109.53 108.95 108.65
GBP/USD Higher Resistance: 1.3458/91 1.3613/17 1.3712/81
Spot: 1.3312 Support: 1.3302/05 1.3266 1.3221
AUD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.7547/90 0.7625/34 0.7726/0.7916
Spot: 0.7545 Support: 0.7502/24 0.7473 0.7412/47
USD/CAD Mildly Higher Resistance: 1.3000/06 1.3080 1.3124
Spot: 1.2959 Support: 1.2803/97 1.2687/1.2756 1.2527/98
NZD/USD Higher Resistance: 0.6954/66 0.6974/87 0.7034/65
Spot: 0.6921 Support: 0.6851/84 0.6817/22 0.6780





TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.






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