Forex, Market Reports

Forex MarketWatch Weekly Outlook for May 20th


Jay and Julie Hawk



This upcoming week’s economic calendar is again moderately busy, and the significant releases this week begin with the tentative OPEC-JMMC meetings on Monday. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meetings are attended by representatives of the 13 OPEC nations, as well as 11 other oil producing countries. On Tuesday, releases include UK Public Sector Net Borrowing, and the Inflation Report Hearings will also take place. Wednesday’s highlights include the FOMC Meeting Minutes, a speech by RBA Governor Lowe, the New Zealand Trade Balance, UK CPI and RPI and European PMI numbers.

Thursday’s highlights include a speech by BOE Governor Carney, UK Retail Sales, the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts, U.S. Existing Home Sales and Initial Jobless Claims. The week’s key data releases conclude on Friday with UK Second Estimate GDP and U.S. Core and Durable Goods Orders, and speeches by BOE Governor Carney and U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell are on calendar.


The following table contains significant upcoming data and events for each of the major economies, as well as the market’s consensus expectation and last result for each data release.

SunMay 20 10:45pm NZD Retail Sales q/q 0.10% 1.00% 1.40%
NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m -1.30% -1.50%
10:47pm NZD Core Retail Sales q/q 0.60% 1.10% 1.80%
11:01pm GBP Rightmove HPI m/m 0.80% 0.40%
11:50pm JPY Trade Balance 0.55T 0.11T 0.17T
MonMay 21 3:00am NZD Credit Card Spending y/y 7.00% 7.40%
All Day CHF Bank Holiday
All Day EUR French Bank Holiday
All Day EUR German Bank Holiday
 8:00am EUR ECB Financial Stability Review
All Day CAD Bank Holiday
2:30pm AUD CB Leading Index m/m 0.30%
3:30pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
TueMay 22 5:00am JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y 0.60% 0.70%
8:15am GBP MPC Member Vlieghe Speaks
8:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing 7.2B -0.3B
9:00am GBP Inflation Report Hearings
10:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations 2 4
Tentative EUR German Buba Monthly Report
12:30pm CAD Wholesale Sales m/m 0.90% -0.80%
1:00pm CNY CB Leading Index m/m 1.70%
2:00pm USD Richmond Manufacturing Index 9 -3
WedMay 23 12:30am AUD MI Leading Index m/m -0.20%
JPY Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.6 53.8
1:30am AUD Construction Work Done q/q 1.30% -19.40%
4:30am JPY All Industries Activity m/m 0.10% 0.40%
7:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI 53.6 53.8
EUR French Flash Services PMI 57.3 57.4
7:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI 57.9 58.1
EUR German Flash Services PMI 53.2 53
8:00am AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.2 56.2
EUR Flash Services PMI 54.7 54.7
8:30am GBP CPI y/y 2.50% 2.50%
GBP PPI Input m/m 1.10% -0.10%
GBP RPI y/y 3.40% 3.30%
GBP Core CPI y/y 2.20% 2.30%
GBP HPI y/y 4.40% 4.40%
GBP PPI Output m/m 0.30% 0.20%
10:00am GBP CBI Realized Sales 2 -2
1:45pm USD Flash Manufacturing PMI 56.6 56.5
USD Flash Services PMI 54.9 54.6
2:00pm EUR Consumer Confidence 1 0
USD New Home Sales 680K 694K
2:30pm USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.4M
6:00pm USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
10:45pm NZD Trade Balance 200M -86M
ThuMay 24 6:00am EUR German Final GDP q/q 0.30% 0.30%
EUR German GfK Consumer Climate 10.8 10.8
8:00am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
8:15am USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
8:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m 0.80% -1.20%
All Day EUR Eurogroup Meetings
11:30am EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
12:30pm CAD Corporate Profits q/q -1.90%
USD Unemployment Claims 220K 222K
1:00pm EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate 0.8 1
USD HPI m/m 0.40% 0.60%
2:00pm USD Existing Home Sales 5.56M 5.60M
2:30pm USD Natural Gas Storage 106B
2:35pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
Tentative GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
11:30pm JPY Tokyo Core CPI y/y 0.60% 0.60%
FriMay 25 8:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate 102 102.1
8:30am GBP Second Estimate GDP q/q 0.10% 0.10%
GBP Prelim Business Investment q/q 0.20% 0.30%
GBP High Street Lending 37.8K 37.6K
GBP Index of Services 3m/3m 0.30% 0.40%
All Day EUR ECOFIN Meetings
12:00pm AUD RBA Assist Gov Bullock Speaks
12:30pm USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.50% 0.10%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m -1.50% 2.60%
1:20pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
2:00pm USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.8 98.8
USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.80%
3:45pm USD FOMC Member Bostic Speaks
CAD Median CPI y/y 2.10% 2.10%
CAD Retail Sales m/m 0.60% 0.30% 0.50%
CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 2.10% 2.00%
CAD Core CPI m/m 0.10% 0.20%
1:15pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks




The table below contains a directional forecast for the coming week, the current spot rate, and key support and resistance levels for each of the major currency pairs.



EUR/USD Lower Resistance: 1.1817/23 1.1862 1.1902/68
Spot: 1.1754 Support: 1.1717 1.1669 1.1553/73
USD/JPY Mildly Higher Resistance: 111.59/65 113.43/75 114.37/74
Spot: 111.10 Support: 110. 84 110.02/48 109.53
GBP/USD Lower Resistance: 1.3458/87 1.3613/17 1.3712/81
Spot: 1.3437 Support: 1.3302/32 1.3266 1.3221
AUD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.7547/66 0.7625/0.7634 0.7726/0.7916
Spot: 0.7526 Support: 0.7502/24 0.7473 0.7412/47
USD/CAD Mildly Higher Resistance: 1.2897/1.3000 1.3080 1.3124
Spot: 1.2866 Support: 1.2803/25 1.2687/1.2756 1.2527/98
NZD/USD Lower Resistance: 0.6903/54 0.6985/87 0.7034/65
Spot: 0.6900 Support: 0.6851/61 0.6817/22 0.6780


TheFXperts’ Forex MarketWatch Reports are provided strictly for educational purposes and represent the opinions of the authors. No recommendation or endorsement for specific financial trading or investment purposes is offered. Subscribers are advised to seek financial, business and legal guidance from licensed professionals.






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